The Jobs Report Shows Signs of Weakening Job Market
Today’s jobs report from the labor department showed the addition of 227,000 jobs to non-farm payrolls in November, beating economists’ expectations by 27,000 jobs. That’s a welcome rebound after last month’s abysmal tally of 36,000 jobs—originally reported as 12,000 jobs, prior to revisions—which was affected by strikes and weather-related data collection issues.
However, the underlying data tells a different story. Long-term unemployment, although little changed from last month, increased by half a million over the year. The number of people who worked part-time despite preferring full-time work increased by 4 million since last year. And the number of discouraged workers—those who want a job but aren’t currently looking—remained steady at 5.5 million.
Together, these numbers point to a labor market that appears to be growing weaker, despite the promising top-line numbers in the jobs report. If you’re unemployed and looking for work, this won’t come as a surprise.
What Experts Are Saying
“Overall, this report suggests the job market is still in solid shape. But there are some signs of weakness here, as well. It’s taking people longer to find jobs, and the number of people considered long-term unemployed (those out of work more than six months) has been rising.” -Ben Casselman, The New York Times
“Job growth in November was helped by the end of disruptions from storms and strikes, which suppressed job growth in October. If you just average the two numbers, you get a job gain of 131,500 jobs, consistent with a slowing but not collapsing job market.” -Ben Casselman, The New York Times
“The economy continues to produce a healthy amount of job and income gains, but a further increase in the unemployment rate tempers some of the shine in the labor market and gives the Fed what it needs to cut rates in December,” -Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, at CNBC
“There’s little sign of such a turnaround yet, but there are reasons for cautious optimism. For now, though, the labor market remains in a slowdown, with job seekers and workers waiting for the anticipated tailwinds to kick in.” -Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter, in an analyst note reported by The Washington Post
Just Give Me the Data, Please
The Employment Situation Summary by the numbers:
Total nonfarm employment: +227,000 jobs
Unemployment rate: 4.2%
Long-term unemployed: 1.7 million
Labor force participation rate: 62.5%
Employment-population ratio: 59.8%
People employed part-time for economic reasons: 4.5 million
Average hourly earnings: Up 13 cents (0.4%) to $35.61.
Industries that added jobs:
Healthcare (+54,000 jobs)
Leisure and hospitality (+53,000)
Government (+33,000)
Transportation equipment manufacturing: (+32,000, reflecting returning workers who were on strike)
Social assistance (+19,000)
Industries that lost jobs:
Retail trade (-28,000 jobs)
Industries that showed little change in employment:
Mining
Wholesale trade
Transportation and warehousing
Information
Financial activities
Professional and business services
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