Is This the Last Good Jobs Report?
If you were just coming out of a news blackout and you read this jobs report, you’d think the job market was pretty healthy. The top-line numbers from the labor department’s monthly employment report are good: 177,000 jobs added, unemployment of 4.2%, and growth in several industries including transportation and warehousing, financial activities, and healthcare.
But if you’ve been paying attention to the news—particularly around President Trump’s tariff policies—you’d start to notice a few cracks.
For example, long-term unemployment, which includes people who’ve been out of work for 27 weeks or more, increased by 179,000 to 1.7 million in April. Nearly a quarter of all unemployed workers are now part of that group.
More layoffs are coming: at Newsweek, Suzanne Blake reports that nearly 130 companies have signaled their intent to lay off employees this month, including Amazon, JP Morgan Chase, and Wells Fargo. Earlier this week, UPS announced that it will lay off 20,000 workers and shutter 73 facilities.
Wages, meanwhile, grew more slowly for the month, ticking up only 6 cents per hour on average. The Bureau of Labor Statistics also revised the previous two months’ tallies to reflect 58,000 fewer jobs added in February and March.
Further, not all job growth is necessarily good news. The spike in transportation and warehousing employment is likely an indicator that companies (and individuals) are trying to stock up before the tariffs hit and raise prices.
What Experts Are Saying
“Daniel Zhao, lead economist for the recruiting site Glassdoor, calls this report the ‘calm before the storm.’ He says that even May could turn out to be too early to see the full effects of tariffs in the job market.” -Ben Casselman, The New York Times
“The 29,000-job increase in transportation and warehousing is interesting. The sector has been accelerating in recent months, in a potential sign that employers have been rushing to move goods ahead of tariffs.” -Lydia DePillis, The New York Times
“Friday's report is the most notable piece of economic data released since President Trump's ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcement on April 2. But Samuel Tombs, chief US economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, argued in a note Friday that the report ‘provides a snapshot of labor demand in the run-up to the April 2 tariff announcements, rather than an early assessment of their impact.’” -Josh Schafer and Myles Udland, Yahoo! Finance
“We can push recession concerns to another month. Job numbers remain very strong, suggesting there was an impressive degree of resilience in the economy in play before the tariff shock. The economy will weaken in the coming months but, with this underlying momentum, the U.S. has a decent chance of averting recession if it can step back from the tariff brink in time.” -Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, quoted by Jeff Cox at CNBC
Just Give Me the Data, Please
The Employment Situation Summary by the numbers:
Total nonfarm employment: +177,000 jobs
Unemployment rate: 4.2% (little changed)
Long-term unemployed: 1.7 million (+179,000)
Labor force participation rate: 62.6% (little changed)
Employment-population ratio: 60% (little changed)
People employed part-time for economic reasons: 4.7 million (little changed)
People who want jobs and have looked for work in the last year: 1.6 million (little changed)
Discouraged workers: 414,000 (little changed)
Average hourly earnings: $36.06, a 0.2% increase (6 cents)
Industries that added jobs:
Healthcare (+51,000 jobs)
Transportation and warehousing (+29,000 jobs)
Financial activities (+14,000 jobs)
Social assistance (+8,000 jobs)
Industry that lost jobs:
Federal government (-9,000 jobs)
Industries that remained flat:
Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Information
Professional and business services
Leisure and hospitality
Earlier Posts From The Job Hopper
SPECIAL EDITION: Resources for Unemployed Federal Workers
If you're one of the thousands of federal workers who’ve recently lost their jobs — or if you’re concerned that you’re about to join them — you need and deserve support. We’ve assembled some helpful resources to get you through the next couple of weeks and months as you figure out what to do next.
Free Google Tools for Job Seekers
Google has lots of free tools you can use to help grow your career and find your next job. Explore career options, take a course, earn a certificate, write your resume and cover letters, track your applications, find the latest job listings, and practice interviewing with Google's tools.
Where To Get Financial Help When You’re Unemployed
What can you do if you’ve run out of unemployment benefits, are about to lose them, or if your benefits aren’t enough to pay the bills? It’s scary to have little or no income, but you may be eligible for financial assistance to help you through this difficult time. Here’s where to go for help.
When (and How) To Use “Open to Work” on LinkedIn
In the latest of what seems like a never-ending stream of bad advice, a self-proclaimed career influencer posted that it was a sign of desperation to say that you're Open to Work on LinkedIn. It's not. Here’s why–and how–to use Open to Work on LinkedIn.
AI Could Be Coming for Your Job (But Don’t Panic Yet)
Artificial intelligence is everywhere, including in the workplace. It can be a valuable resource for job seekers, employees, and companies, but it also endangers job security and will make some jobs obsolete. Regardless of what’s coming next, you can take steps to AI-proof your career, as well as make the most of opportunities to pivot.
How To Get Hired Quickly After a Layoff
Unless you’re sitting on a sizable trust fund, your first thought after getting laid off is, “How do I get back to earning a paycheck as soon as possible?” Here’s a comprehensive plan for getting on hiring managers’ radars and getting back to work ASAP.
Our Partners
Remote Rocketship: Remote Rocketship scans the internet for remote job listings, and you’ll find over 100,000 remote roles, many of which aren’t listed on LinkedIn or job boards. The basic version is free. The premium version is $6 per week, with monthly and yearly discounts. To access all the job listings, sign up using promo code JOBHOPPER for a 20% discount. (We may receive a small commission if you sign up using this link.)
Jobsearchdb: When you're looking for a job in a specific industry or career field, using job sites that focus on the types of jobs you're interested in can be a time-saver. The Job Search Database includes links to 1,000+ niche career sites, organized by category. It’s one of the best resources for finding job listings. Jobsearchdb is free.